The announcement from the Department of Transport that all government funded electric vehicle home charge points must incorporate smart-charging will have a profound and positive impact on the path towards a net-zero emissions economy.Continue reading
Following the news in February 2018 of the PowerLoop consortium formation, which is part of a three-year, £7m project part-funded by the UK Government via InnovateUK, Open Energi is excited to see the next project stemming from this group come to life. On Friday, Octopus Electric Vehicles and Wallbox announced their partnership to bring Wallbox’s revolutionary vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, which is when an electric vehicle releases energy through your home and out into the local grid, to the UK. In partnership with Octopus Energy, Open Energi will lead on developing a bespoke V2G aggregation platform and will work alongside UK Power Networks to integrate domestic V2G into their flexibility services.
This will be the smallest and lightest residential V2G charge point in the country, helping the consortium’s objective to support the grid, reduce costs and deliver a more sustainable future. This step forward in technology has been achieved by using a silicon carbide inverter to switch power from DC (used by electric cars) to AC (used in homes and by the grid) at a rate much faster than previously possible. The new technology allows Wallbox to reduce the size and weight of the inverter, a component which traditionally meant V2G charge points were much heavier and larger than existing one-way charge points (where energy only flows from the grid to charge the car).
Our analysis suggests EVs could deliver over 11GW of flexible capacity to the UK’s energy system and conservatively forecasts the market providing about £1bn a year in consumer benefits by 2030. Initiatives like the PowerLoop consortium with Octopus Energy are playing a vital role in unlocking that potential at scale. As part of the consortium we have been able to draw on our extensive experience connecting, aggregating and optimising industrial equipment, battery storage and generation assets on a second-by-second basis, to demonstrate how these principles can be applied to domestic smart charging infrastructure.
V2G technology allows drivers to earn money from plugging in their electric cars. V2G discharges excess electricity from their car through their home and out to the grid at times when there is peak demand on energy networks, and recharges the car when energy demand (and energy prices) is low. The renewable energy will be based on the current 12 month fixed energy tariff provided by energy supplier Octopus Energy.
For more information on the PowerLoop bundle, register on the Octopus EV website at www.octopusev.com/powerloop.
Dagoberto Cedillos, Strategy & Innovation Lead at Open Energi
As Electric Vehicle (EV) uptake accelerates we’re starting to see a radical transformation in the way transportation influences the power system. Vehicle-to-X (V2X) technology, which can be used to discharge an EV battery back to the grid, or to power our homes and businesses, has a pivotal role to play.
By unlocking ‘storage on wheels’ V2X can bring down the cost of EV ownership; reducing the need for infrastructure upgrades and cost effectively integrating more renewable generation. Open Energi’s analysis suggests that by using vehicle batteries to optimise electricity demand against prices, EV owners could benefit from a new income stream in the region of £1,500 a year.
The UK currently has over 130,000 EVs on the road, and National Grid expects this to rise to over 10 million by 2030. Globally, BNEF forecasts 130 million EVs in the same timeframe. As 2019 gets underway, all the indicators suggest EV growth is well on its way to hitting these targets, breaking records month-on-month. The graph below shows how EV forecasts have increased year on year. It’s possible we will see a very visible step change in the mid-2020s, as EVs hit up-front cost parity with Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs).
Rising Consensus on EV adoption, source BNEF
Quantifying EV flexibility from smart charging
Last year Open Energi analysed the potential to manage EV electricity demand (one way) using smart charging. Taking National Grid’s 10 million by 2030 forecast, we identified some 12GW of flexibility which could turn EVs from a threat to grid stability to an asset that can benefit the grid, drivers and the environment alike.
Smart charging flexibility comes from the energy that can be shifted (e.g. moving a period of charge, or part of it, from one time to another) and is determined by the amount of energy a vehicle will require at a given charge.
An average vehicle in the UK drives 21 miles per day, which translates to 6-7kWh. It is also limited by the speed of charging, typically 3, 7 or 11kW for an EV charging at home or in the workplace. These scenarios offer the most smart charging potential because vehicles are parked and charging for longer periods, which makes their charging more interruptible.
There is no need for an expensive rapid charger outside your office or home if you are parked there for several hours. You will have ample time to charge your vehicle with a cheaper, slower charger.
Flexibility from EV charging with higher charging speeds is less interruptible, as it will tend to take place in situations where people want to charge quickly and continue with their journey, e.g. forecourt environments. These rapid charging scenarios will likely be complemented by stationary energy storage, which will help to reduce consumption during peak periods, manage local network constraints and provide grid services, as in the case of Open Energi’s project at South Mimms Motorway Services.
Open Energi’s 2017 analysis explored the potential to enable flexibility via smart charging. Turning our attention from smart charging to V2X provides food for thought. Instead of being limited by the amount of demand that can be shifted, V2X flexibility is defined by the amount of energy storage capacity in the vehicle battery (e.g. 40kWh for a Nissan Leaf) and its charge/discharge speed (3kW or 10kW based on current technology). This energy storage capacity could be used multiple times in a day, depending on its charging and discharging.
Conservatively assuming 5 million vehicles on the roads by 2030 – half of National Grid’s forecast – this translates to 200GWh of storage. Assuming they could charge/discharge at a low speed of 3kW, this equates to 15GW of capacity, enough to power 30 million homes! For comparison, National Grid’s most optimistic 2030 forecast of total (stationary) electricity storage capacity is 9GW.
Given the battery accounts for some 50% of the car’s cost it is important to consider battery lifecycle and how using it could impact the vehicle’s warranty. However, keep in mind that a vehicle driving the average 21 miles a day will use less than a fifth of its capacity each day (7kWh/40kWh). The graph below illustrates a typical UK home’s daily consumption, which is in the region of 2kWh over the evening peak (4-7pm).
Residential demand profile, source UKERC
Using V2X technology, an EV battery could discharge to the home during this time and already create substantial value by simply taking the household ‘off-grid’ when prices are at their highest. Adding this 2kWh to the 7kWh needed for driving gives a total daily throughput of 9kWh, or 22.5% of battery capacity.
The batteries Open Energi operates in our portfolio of distributed energy assets usually perform a full charge/discharge cycle per day and comply with warranty conditions, so there is potential to extract further value by increasing the utilisation of the vehicle battery. However, in the example of a household we need to evaluate if the spread between the export price during the peak and the import price when energy is recovered is positive to justify exporting to the grid. This is not necessarily the case for larger demand sites such as an Industrial or Commercial user.
Opportunity for large energy users
Sites with greater demand could shift even more energy, and discharge more vehicles at once, without having to export. Essentially, a fleet of commercial vehicles becomes a behind-the-meter energy storage asset for a site when drivers have finished their shifts, displacing site consumption during the peak and recharging the vehicle battery when prices fall. Open Energi’s analysis suggests that this kind of demand optimisation could be worth up to £1,500 per vehicle per year.
The main obstacle today is the price and availability of V2G chargers but this should quickly change. While V2G chargers are relatively difficult to procure at present, V2G compatible vehicles are already being sold at a similar price to comparable EV models. For example, Nissan’s electric van, the e-NV200, does not seem to have a premium for the feature – it comes already equipped with V2G compatible charging technology. As charging technology catches up, V2G will be a standard bundled feature of these vehicles.
Storage on wheels
Projects such as Powerloop, the first large-scale domestic V2G trial in the UK, aim to demonstrate the benefits of V2X in action. Backed by Innovate UK and bringing together a consortium including Open Energi, Octopus Energy, Octopus Electric Vehicles, UK Power Networks and ChargePoint Services, the 3-year, £7 million project will see 135 V2G chargers rolled out on the UK’s electricity grid. EV drivers will be able to access a special V2G bundle when leasing a V2G compatible car.
A two-way charger will enable the driver to charge their vehicle intelligently, using their vehicle battery to power their home during peak times or sell spare power back to the grid. The project will also focus on the role of EVs in delivering flexibility services to the local network. Open Energi’s Dynamic Demand 2.0 technology will aggregate the cars’ battery power to integrate domestic V2G into UK Power Networks’ flexibility services. Together, we aim to demonstrate the benefits of using EVs to support the grid and reduce costs for drivers.
It’s clear that V2X unlocks a huge opportunity for energy systems globally – with the potential to create a volume of ‘storage on wheels’ that will ultimately eclipse grid-scale and behind-the-meter batter storage many times over. Depending on how we shape regulation, develop technology and create new business models, this huge amount of flexible storage potential could be captured to lower the cost of car ownership, power our homes, and operate our electricity network more efficiently, whilst accelerating our transition to a net zero carbon future.
At South Mimms Motorway Services, Open Energi own and operate a 250kW/500kWh Powerpack alongside one of Tesla’s largest and busiest UK charging locations. The project, which is one of the first of its kind globally, was selected as a demand side flexibility success story and showcased by National Grid at their 2018 Power Responsive summer reception.
The Supercharger site can charge up to 12 cars at one time, and since popular charging periods often coincide with peak periods of grid demand – between 4pm and 7pm, when electricity prices are at their highest – flexible solutions are needed to ease the strain on local grids and control electricity costs.
Integrating a Powerpack at the location has meant that during peak periods, vehicles can charge from Powerpack instead of drawing power from the grid. Throughout the remainder of the day, the Powerpack system charges from and discharges to the grid, providing a Firm Frequency Response (FFR) service to National Grid and earning revenue for balancing grid electricity supply and demand on a second-by-second basis.
Combining batteries and electric vehicles makes vehicle charging part of the solution to integrating more renewables without affecting drivers, unlocking vital flexibility to help build a smarter, more sustainable system.
Robyn Lucas, Head of Data Science at Open Energi explained “[the battery] provides a source of flexibility to what is otherwise a very inflexible demand. We do frequency response for most of the time, and over the peak period we use the battery to charge the car up, rather than them charging from the grid.
“Open Energi hope to repeat this blueprint with multiple other stationary storage assets next to EV charging stations. Having stationary storage assets used in this way allows both transport and electricity networks to be decarbonised and allows for greater renewable penetration.”
Last week National Grid published its 2018 Future Energy Scenarios. Most notably, this year’s scenarios forecast there could be as many as 36 million electric vehicles (EVs) on UK roads by 2040, almost double the number suggested a year ago.
Accelerating EV uptake will increase overall electricity demand – with EVs accounting for 7.5% of total electricity demand by 2040 – but the impact of EVs can be managed and controlled thanks to smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, which means EVs can be turned into a flexible asset which works for the benefit of the system.
The report recognises this – modelling the impact of V2G technology for the first time – and highlights the role of EVs in helping to manage peaks and troughs in demand and provide stored energy to support growing levels of renewable generation.
Open Energi have updated our modelling of EV flexibility to reflect National Grid’s latest forecasts. By 2030, with up to 11 million EVs on the road, our analysis suggests there could exist between 1.1–3.7GW of turn-up and between 2.5-8.5GW of turn-down flexibility to be unlocked from smart-charging. The available flexibility would change throughout the day depending on charging patterns and scenarios. In 2040, with 36 million EVs on the road, this rises to up to 12.6GW of turn-up and 29.7GW of turn-down flexibility respectively. Our current analysis does not include V2G so these calculations will eventually be higher depending on the level of V2G penetration achieved.
Open Energi is working to make these figures a reality.
We are part of the PowerLoop consortium, a 3-year, £7 million project backed by Innovate UK to develop the UK’s first large-scale domestic V2G trial. The consortium includes Octopus Energy, Octopus Electric Vehicles, UK Power Networks, ChargePoint Services, Energy Saving Trust and Navigant.
Open Energi is leading on developing a bespoke V2G aggregation platform and is working closely with UK Power Networks to integrate domestic V2G into their flexibility services. Together, we aim to demonstrate the benefits of using domestic V2G to support the grid and reduce costs for drivers.
In parallel, we’re working with businesses to develop EV charging and fleet management strategies that deliver valuable savings and income and support companies’ wider energy management and sustainability goals. Our Dynamic Demand 2.0 platform means EVs can be controlled and optimised alongside other energy assets – including on-site generation and storage – to ensure vehicles are charged and ready when needed, site constraints are managed, and value is maximised.
With the right technology in place, we can manage the impact of EVs on the electricity system, create the foundations for mass adoption and align sustainable energy and transport needs for the future.
For the full methodology behind our EV flexibility calculations, click here.
Dagoberto Cedillos, Strategy and Innovation Lead, Open Energi
As Electric Vehicle (EV) uptake accelerates and costs fall, more and more companies are exploring how to electrify their vehicle fleets and offer EV charging to employees and/or customers. Delivering sustainable transport solutions will cut carbon and improve air quality, but businesses need to think carefully about the impact on their electricity demand and how they manage EV charging as part of their wider energy strategy.
Dagoberto Cedillos, Strategy & Innovation Lead at Open Energi, explores five factors every business should consider, and how, with the right approach, EVs can be managed to deliver valuable savings and income.
1. Charging infrastructure
There are a large and growing number of EV models on the market with progressively faster charging speeds and bigger ranges. Charging set-ups differ across manufacturers, although two favoured options seem to be emerging; Type 1 and CHAdeMO or Type 2 and CCS (Zap Map offer a good overview of this).
In the UK Type 2 is by far the most commonly available chargepoint. Understanding fleet or workplace/customer charging requirements should inform what charging infrastructure is most appropriate, but of course fast or rapid connectors will have a larger impact in terms of electricity demand.
2. Connection size:
EVs can instantly draw a lot of power from the grid. Today’s rapid chargers typically charge at up to 50kW (although Tesla’s are faster), but newer models are expected to charge at 150kW and beyond. If you are offering fast/rapid charging and expect to have many vehicles charging at once, you may need to expand your connection size. A larger connection will cost more but will enable you to meet higher demand without exceeding your import limits – assuming the local electricity network has the capacity. An alternative approach is to stagger the timing of vehicle charging so that you avoid creating a surge in power demand (‘smart queuing’), enabling a smaller, less expensive connection. Similarly, if you have on-site renewable generation or energy storage, these can be used alongside EV charging to manage demand and make the most of clean, cheap electricity when it is available.
3. Charging patterns
It’s really important to think about expected charging patterns. If it’s your own fleet will they all be charging overnight only, weekdays versus weekends, or on a rolling 24/7 basis? Similarly for employees or customer charging facilities, will charging be condensed into working or opening hours or could the facilities be used more widely? The more flexibility you have to manage and spread EV charging the better, but you have to start by focusing on the requirements and expectations of the driver. A supermarket customer might only connect for twenty minutes but won’t want their charging interrupted. Someone at work could plug their vehicle in for eight hours or more, so probably won’t mind if you delay or interrupt their charging as long as their vehicle is charged and ready to go when they finish work. Smart queuing, which automates optimal queuing and charge dispatch of EVs can manage this process to support local network needs and ensure vehicle charging is prioritised in the appropriate order.
4. How many and where
If charging stations are dispersed in small numbers across multiple sites that will be much easier to manage and integrate with existing infrastructure than a large number all at one site. However, if your charging is concentrated in one place, this will make it easier to capture value from smart charging and EV flexibility. Local flexibility markets are emerging, and the ability to turn-down demand quickly and efficiently could provide a valuable service to local Distribution Network Operators. The business case for aggregating and delivering this kind of service from EVs becomes more compelling where there are economies of scale to be gained from connecting to many vehicles in one place.
5. Electricity bill
It’s important to assess the impact EVs will have on your electricity bill. Understanding this, and the nature of the tariff structure you have with your supplier, will help to identify where the opportunities for optimisation lie. Minimising charging during peak price periods and maximising charging when electricity is at its cheapest is an obvious first step, but the ability to manage the timing of EV charging also opens up potential revenue streams. For example, as renewable generation grows instances of negative pricing – when you get paid to consume electricity – are expected to occur more often. With the right technology in place, your EVs could respond to these price signals and get paid to charge your EV fleet. More generally, the ability to respond to fluctuations in electricity supply and demand and provide short-term balancing services – i.e. a few minutes – to the System Operator can be extremely valuable.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss your business’ EV charging strategy in more detail, please get in touch.
Last month saw the announcement of almost £30million in Government funding for V2G projects. Open Energi is part of a consortium which secured funding to develop the first large-scale domestic trial of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) charging in the UK, as part of a three-year, £7million project.
The consortium, named PowerLoop, comprises Open Energi, Octopus Energy, Octopus Electric Vehicles, UK Power Networks, ChargePoint Services, Energy Saving Trust and Navigant. Together, our objective is to roll out V2G charging technology to UK electric vehicle (EV) drivers in the next 12 months. Over the course of the three-year project we aim to demonstrate the benefits of using domestic V2G to support the grid, reduce costs and deliver a more sustainable future.
A total of 135 V2G chargers will be installed in a ‘cluster’ delivery model that will facilitate research into the impact of widespread EV rollout on the UK’s electricity grid. EV drivers will be able to access a special V2G bundle, Octopus PowerLoop, when leasing a V2G compatible car. A two-way charger will enable the driver to charge their vehicle intelligently, using their vehicle battery to power their home during peak times or sell spare power back to the grid. The project will also focus on the role of EVs in delivering flexibility services to the local network.
This smart charging approach means EVs can be managed to the benefit of the system, accelerating the transition to a sustainable energy future, supporting low carbon growth and creating value for the driver.
Recent analysis by Open Energi found that EVs could provide over 11GW of flexible capacity to the UK’s energy system by 2030, demonstrating their huge potential as a significant grid resource, able to provide flexibility to support renewable generation, balance electricity supply and demand and alleviate strain on the network at a local and national level.
The technological challenge is to drive down the cost of single phase, bi-directional chargers and to develop software that controls the charging of many thousands of batteries distributed around Britain, without impacting drivers.
Open Energi will lead on developing a bespoke V2G aggregation platform and will work alongside UK Power Networks towards integrating domestic V2G into their flexibility services. We will draw on our extensive experience of working with businesses to connect, aggregate and optimise industrial equipment, battery storage and generation assets on a second-by-second basis, for participation in Demand Side Response schemes. This includes a project at South Mimms Welcome Break Motorway services, on the outskirts of London, where we operate a Tesla Powerpack alongside one of Tesla’s largest and busiest UK charging locations.
By working with EV owners and the distribution network operator – UK Power Networks – the consortium will demonstrate the beneﬁts of using domestic EV batteries to provide grid ﬂexibility, cheaper transport and energy to homeowners, and help to accelerate the decarbonisation of the UK’s power and transport sectors.
By Dagoberto Cedillos, Strategy & Innovation Lead, Open Energi
2017 was a year of dramatic change in the UK electricity market. Overall, total UK electricity consumption fell 2.8% compared to the previous year: 264 TWh compared to 272 TWh in 2016. This follows the long-term trend of decreasing peak and total yearly energy use, while the proportion of renewable generation continued to rise: 2017 smashed 13 clean energy records, low carbon generation exceeded fossil fuels, and the resulting trend for negative prices (as recent as last week in Germany thanks to high wind) looks set to continue.
Last year also saw a fall in the strike price for new offshore wind power to £57.50/MWh. Considering the government’s guaranteed price for Hinkley Point C is £92.50/MWh, it highlights just how competitive renewables, and particularly offshore wind, now are. However, the system must be able to cope with the intermittency that all this cheap, carbon-free power brings.
Figure 1 shows the huge variation in demand over the year: from peaks of nearly 50GW on winter evenings, to troughs of around 17GW on summer nights. Figure 2 shows the average daily profile of consumption. In 2017, the prize for peak demand goes to January 26th, which came in at 49.76 GW at 6pm. Compare this to the profile of June 11th, the day that the UK used the least energy: at 5am, it was 16.57 GW. This swing of over 30 GW presents many challenges for the system operator as more and more of the generation becomes intermittent and demand patterns shift: there is value in being flexible with one’s electricity consumption.
Historically, our electricity system has been built to cope with the peaks; and paying for this network accounts for around 30% of your electricity bill (and rising). What if, by being a bit smarter about when we use our electricity, we could flatten the swing out a little? Or better still, align it to renewable generation?
This is where demand flexibility comes in, empowering consumers and playing a vital role in providing the responsiveness needed to cope with huge swings in renewable generation as it makes up more and more of the UK’s generation mix.
Transforming the network
2017 will be known as the break-through year of batteries and electric vehicles (EVs). With the dramatic fall in battery prices we’ve seen a rush of parties buying up battery capacity, hoping to profit from what were lucrative flexibility markets. National Grid have seen batteries flooding into the Firm Frequency Response (FFR) market, attempting to secure profitable long-term contracts to satisfy investors. Market dynamics mean this is increasingly challenging. In a rapidly changing marketplace, a variety of revenue streams must be considered. Battery operation must encapsulate multiple markets to insure against future movements and maximise profits, while ensuring safe and careful operation of the asset such that state of charge, warranty, and connection limits are respected, an area where Open Energi has significant expertise.
EV take-up is accelerating more quickly than many estimated – UK sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids were up 27% in 2017 – and the need for managing this additional demand in a smart, automated way is crucial to alleviate strain on local networks. We have explored the enormous potential of EVs to provide flexible grid capacity and are working with a consortium to deliver the UK’s first domestic V2G trial.
While in the short term, as the big electricity players try to keep up with the changing needs of the system, flexibility markets present a degree of uncertainty, the long term need for demand-side response (DSR) and frequency regulation cannot be underestimated.
Grid Frequency and FFR
As the System Operator, National Grid must maintain a stable grid frequency of 50Hz. Generation and demand on the system must be balanced on a second-by-second basis to ensure power suppliers are maintained. Traditional thermal plant operates with physically rotating turbines, which carry physical inertia and act to stabilise the frequency. With the increase in generation from non-inertial sources (e.g. wind turbines, which don’t carry inertia in the same way, and PV cells), this stability is reduced. Larger deviations in frequency can result in the event of a power station, or interconnector trip, for example.
During 2017, the largest low frequency event (demand greater than supply) occurred on 13th July, when it dropped to 49.57Hz. Given that National Grid’s mandate is to keep it within 0.5Hz of 50Hz, this was rather close! Figure 3 shows the period, and we see a sudden drop in frequency which typically indicates the trip of a significant generator. In this case, the fault was at the French interconnector. Here, what usually functions to improve energy continuity and smoothen geographical variations in supply was the culprit for the biggest second-by-second imbalance in 2017!
The largest high frequency event (supply greater than demand), during which frequency reached 50.41Hz, occurred at the end of October, was much more gradual and seems to have been due to a combination of several effects. Demand typically drops quite steeply this late in the day, so large CCGT plants are reducing their output and on this occasion a sudden drop in wind-generation seemed to have been over-compensated by pumped storage.
As well as these relatively rare large frequency events, there are excursions that can last for several hours. Figure 4 shows two periods where the frequency deviated from 50 Hz. In general, the average frequency is 50Hz, and therefore any response to frequency regulation averages out to zero. However, over these medium-term time periods the average frequency is not 50Hz. For flexible assets like batteries, that are dynamically responding to correct grid frequency during such periods (performing FFR) the state of charge is affected.
For this reason, the state of charge of the battery must be actively, and automatically, managed – so that optimal state of charge is quickly recovered after such events. The battery is then able to continue to perform FFR, or other services such as peak price avoidance or price arbitrage in wholesale markets. The state of charge (bottom panels in Figure 4) can also have strict warranty limits set by the manufacturer.
Interestingly, 2017 saw an increase in both the number of frequency events (usually defined as frequency excursions larger than 0.2Hz away from 50Hz), and frequency mileage (defined as the cumulative deviation of the grid frequency away from 50 Hz), shown in Figure 5, particularly during the spring and autumn.
Could this be due to the large, somewhat unknown amount of PV on the system? It is distributed, meaning National Grid see PV generation as a fall in demand; they also have no control over it (unlike most other generation). PV efficiency is high in cold weather, so perhaps unexpectedly high and erratic solar generation on cold, sunny days in the Spring and Autumn led to a more unstable system this year, compared to 2016.
Figure 5. The grid has experienced more mileage and more events in 2016 than 2017, especially in March and October. Frequency “event” here is defined as a deviation of 0.1 Hz around 50Hz.
The rise of distributed generation, accelerating EV uptake, and plunging battery storage costs, are all driving a rapid transformation in the UK’s electricity system. Managing these changes requires new approaches. Demand-side response technologies, like Open Energi’s Dynamic Demand 2.0 platform, mean patterns of demand can be shifted in a completely carbon neutral way; enabling electricity to be consumed when it’s being generated: as the wind blows, or the sun shines. Rather than inefficiently changing the output of a gas fired power station to meet demand, we can make smart changes in demand up and down the country to meet generation, deliver local flexibility, and put consumers in control of their energy bills: delivering completely invisible, completely automated, intelligent DSR which paves the way for a more sustainable energy future.
By Wouter Kimman, Data Scientist, Open Energi
 For demand here and throughout this post we use INDO values as reported by ELEXON Ltd.
Electric Vehicles (EVs) have taken off in 2017 with governments, manufacturers and industry queuing up to announce bold commitments, product launches and sales figures. Suddenly, EVs have shifted from being a future technology, to a technology of the here and now.
The next decade will be critical for EVs, and their accelerating deployment will have a significant impact on infrastructure systems and markets. A lot of attention has been given to ‘worst-case’ scenarios but smart charging technology means EVs can be managed to the benefit of the system, accelerating our transition to a sustainable energy future and supporting low carbon growth. New analysis by Open Energi suggests that EVs could provide over 11GW of flexible capacity to the UK’s energy system by 2030.
Rise of EVs
The next decade will be incredibly important for EVs, and their deployment has been strengthened by manufacturer commitment, government influence and price curves. Manufacturers including Volvo, Jaguar, and Volkswagen to name a few have made bold statements, claiming the electrification of their product lines and assigning large budgets for R&D. Global EV line-up will almost double by 2020, as the release of Chevy’s Bolt, Tesla’s Model 3 and Nissan’s new Leaf lead EVs into the mainstream.
Governments such as France and the UK have agreed to ban sales of diesel vehicles by 2040. Other countries have set aggressive sales targets, for example China, who has set a 7m target in its 2025 Auto Plan. And all want to become world leaders in EV technology. Here in the UK, BEIS has announced funding for battery and V2G technology development with further funding announced in the Autumn Budget.
Technology development and manufacturing scale-up continues to drive prices down. Battery prices, which account for around 50% of the cost of an EV, have fallen more than 75% since 2010 and are expected to continue to do so at about 7% year on year to 2030. Analysis from both UBS and BNEF claims price parity will be achieved in Europe, US and China sometime in the 2020s, repeatedly accelerating the next million of sales.
EVs and electricity demand
According to BNEF, in 2040 54% of global new car sales and 33% of the global fleet will be electric, with a demand of up to 1,800 TWh (5% of projected global power consumption). In the UK, National Grid suggests around 9 million EVs will be on the road by 2030. This uptake in EVs will have a significant effect on our electricity system.
Although EV charging will cause an increase in overall electrical energy demand, the greater challenge lies in where, when and how this charging takes place. The overall electricity demand change will be a single-digit percentage increase but if all this energy is consumed at the same time of day, it could result in double digit percentage increases in peak power demand. This creates challenges for generation capacity and for local networks, who could be put under strain to meet these surges in power demand.
There has been a lot of attention given to the worst-case impact EVs could have on the system – but less analysis of the benefit they could bring as a flexible grid resource controlled by smart charging. At Open Energi, we have used a bottom up approach to quantify the flexibility EVs could offer the UK’s energy system, and the opportunities it could create.
Different charging scenarios were designed based on the charging speeds currently available and their granular flexibility was quantified (see below for a full description of the methodology). Then, the time at which each of these scenarios is likely to occur was evaluated. Finally, using EV fleet forecasts, volume was attributed to each scenario and a set of future flexibility profiles produced.
By 2020, with around 1.6 million EVs on the road, Open Energi’s analysis suggests there could exist between 200 – 550 MW of turn-up and between 400 and 1.3GW of turn-down flexibility to be unlocked from smart-charging. The available flexibility would change throughout the day depending on charging patterns and scenarios. In 2030, with 9 million EVs on the road, this rises to up to 3GW of turn-up and 8GW of turn-down flexibility respectively.
Opportunities: smart charging for flexibility
Smart charging technology turns EVs from a threat to grid stability into an asset that can work for the benefit of the system. Optimal night-dispatch for example, can ensure all vehicles are charged by the time they’ll be used the next day without compromising their local network infrastructure. Cars could help to absorb energy during periods of oversupply, and to ease down demand during periods of undersupply. On an aggregate basis, they can help the system operator, National Grid, with its real-time balancing challenge, and provide much needed flexibility to support growing levels of renewable generation. Suppliers could work with charge point operators to balance their trading portfolios and manage imbalance risk, helping to lower costs for consumers.
Of course, smart charging can only happen with the consent of the driver, and drivers will only consent if their car is charged and ready to go when they need it. This means deploying artificial intelligence and data insight to automate charging without affecting user experience, so that the technology can learn and respond to changing patterns of consumer behaviour and deliver an uninterrupted driver experience. Getting this right is key to aligning the future of sustainable energy and transport.
Dago Cedillos is Strategy and Innovation Lead at Open Energi
Open Energi’s methodology consists of a bottom up approach, looking at the different charging scenarios and quantifying the flexibility from each of them. The time at which each of these scenarios is likely to occur has been analysed. Finally, using EV fleet forecasts, based on National Grid Future Energy Scenario forecasts (2017, Two Degrees), we’ve attributed volume to each scenario and generated a flexibility profile.
We formulated our charging scenarios based on the different charging speeds and the capabilities of each. Charging speeds are currently referred to as Slow, Fast and Rapid as set out below.
Based on these speeds, we built some scenarios considering the use-cases. Slow charging is likely to be used at home, Fast charging in public spaces and Rapid in public spaces and forecourts. We assumed typical plug-in durations for these charging scenarios.
Considering the charging scenarios, calculations were performed on the turn-up and turn-down capabilities of each. An important element of this analysis, the average daily energy requirement per vehicle, was based on the following assumptions:
- Average daily miles travelled per vehicle: 20.54 (based on UK National Transport Survey’s VMT)
- A conservative assumption of 20kWh/100km (the Chevy bolt can travel 238 miles on a 60kWh battery)
This leads to the figures in table (above), which align closely with National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios 2017 when using their fleet forecasts.
Different likely situations were built for each scenario, using 7kWh as a simple rule of thumb of what an EV would require as charge per day. For example, for the ‘Long’ scenario: using a 3kW (B) slow charger, energy to be charged (A) was evaluated for the different likely situations (J). Potential turn-up (F) and turn-down (H) was defined and saturation/underperformance parameters (G & I) were introduced for this flexibility. That is, to charge (A) using speed (B), there would only be (I) hours of turn-down flexibility (H) in an optimal case before underperformance (i.e. not fully charging the vehicle). This was repeated across all scenarios using the range of charging speeds, plug-in durations and rates of charge eligible for each to quantify flexibility.
The average flexibility potential for each possibility was calculated as a kW value, as the product of (F) & (G) and (H) & (I) divided by plug-in time (D). This was the estimated average kW value of flexibility for a vehicle under the option in the scenario. Max, mid and min flexibility values were defined for each scenario based on the options calculated per scenario.
Having the average flexibility per vehicle for each scenario, this was then converted into a flexibility profile considering the following assumptions:
- Long scenario (home charging) likely to take place during the night.
- Medium scenario (workplace charging) likely to take place during office hours.
- Short scenario (shopping/dining) likely to take place during early morning, lunch and after office hours.
- Ultra-short scenario (forecourts) likely to take place during early morning, lunch and after office hours.
Attributing vehicle volume to each scenario was then performed as follows. Data from the Department of Transport indicates that approximately 50-55% of households owning a vehicle have access to off-street parking. Open Energi assumed the following share of vehicles per scenario. Further work needs to be carried out to define how this share will evolve over time with the development of charging technology.
The aggregate flexibility for each hour which defines the profile was then calculated using the flexibility per vehicle and scenario, the scenario schedules, and the number of vehicles in each scenario and for each time period (2017, 2020, 2030 and 2040).
 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios 2017 (Two Degrees)
 Department of Transport survey: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20111006052633/http:/dft.gov.uk/pgr/statistics/datatablespublications/trsnstatsatt/parking.html
 Open Energi identified a gap in data available to define these shares with accuracy, these will have to be reviewed over time.
Pairing batteries with EV charging stations can help to align sustainable transport and energy needs for the future.
At South Mimms Welcome Break Motorway Services, we have installed a 250kW/500kWh Powerpack alongside one of Tesla’s largest and busiest UK charging locations. The Supercharger site can charge up to 12 cars at one time, and since popular charging periods often coincide with peak periods of grid demand – between 4pm and 7pm, when electricity prices are at their highest – flexible solutions are needed to ease the strain on local grids and control electricity costs.
Integrating a Powerpack at the location has meant that during peak periods, vehicles can charge from Powerpack instead of drawing power from the grid. Throughout the remainder of the day, the Powerpack system charges from and discharges to the grid, providing a Firm Frequency Response (FFR) service to National Grid and earning revenue for balancing grid electricity supply and demand on a second-by-second basis.
Open Energi own and operate the Powerpack, which is part of our portfolio of assets that help maintain the frequency of the grid. Combining batteries and electric vehicles makes vehicle charging part of the solution to integrating more renewables without affecting drivers, unlocking vital flexibility to help build a smarter, more sustainable system.
The project at South Mimms Welcome Break Motorway Services provides a blueprint for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure globally. Moreover, by reducing National Grid’s reliance on fossil fuelled power stations as a means of balancing electricity supply and demand, the Powerpack helps to reduce UK CO2 emissions by approximately 1,138 tonnes per year.